Ranking the top five candidates through Week 14

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The NFL’s MVP award has become a two-player heat entering the final month of the regular season. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes And Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen gets hurt In the second half of the season, front runners have come into the mix. How close the top two candidates are and what separates No. 1 from No. 2 depends on who you ask.

We asked a group of analysts — Stefania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Matt Miller, Sal Paulantonio, Jason Reed, Jordan Reed, Louis Riddick, Mike Tannenbaum, Seth Walder and Field Yates — Vote for the top players in the MVP race now. We then use that 14 set of rankings to give our top five candidates, using Heisman Trophy-esque scaling for each ranking to determine how the field stacks up. Among our 14-person panel, Mahomes received nine first-place votes and Hurts finished this round of voting with five first-place votes.

We’ll also look at some names that have seen their MVP stock spike or plummet. With four weeks left in the regular season, will someone further down the list of MVP candidates make a push to unseat the two favorites at the top? Here’s a look at where things stand in Week 15.

Note: All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Jump:
Top five | Missed it for a bit
to hoard, to accumulate | Stock down

2022 statistics: 4,160 passing yards, 280 rushing yards, 35 total TDs, 11 INTs, 77.9 QBR
Current Odds: +200

Mahomes leapt forward Josh Allen Allen followed a rough patch for Week 9 as the front-runner for the MVP award. Mahomes continued his case as the NFL’s most valuable player with league-best passing yards and touchdown passes. He worked without a receiver Tyreek Hill. Mahomes threw three touchdown passes against the Broncos in Week 14, but also threw three interceptions — the most he’s thrown in a game since late 2020 and just a week after the Chiefs lost to the Bengals — which is likely why his MVP odds have dipped to the middle.


2022 statistics: 3,157 passing yards, 686 rushing yards, 32 total TDs, 3 INTs, 70.4 QBR
Current Odds: -140

The Eagles are the most complete team in the NFL, and the Hearts are a major threat to any opponent. Hurts rushed for 157 yards against the Packers, threw for 380 yards and three touchdowns against the Titans and led the Eagles to a 48-point rout of the Giants. He’s accounted for nearly 1,000 yards of offense in his last three games (including nine TDs), and the team has scored 123 total points over the same stretch — its most in three straight games since 1972.

Hurts ranks first in passer rating (108.4), interception percentage (0.8%) and rushing touchdowns (10), and he ranks in the top three in total TDs (32), yards per attempt (8.1) and completion percentage (68%). . Hurts and Mahomes will battle it out down the stretch, and it’s not out of the question that the Eagles’ QB could become the second-youngest to win MVP at age 23.


2022 statistics: 3,685 passing yards, 234 rushing yards, 32 total TDs, 9 INTs, 59.8 QBR
Current Odds: +600

Burrow entered the MVP mix during a Week 13 win over the Chiefs in which he threw for 286 yards with two touchdown passes while recording his second-highest completion percentage (80.6%) of the season. He added to his TD pass total (27, second) and passing stats (3,685 yards, third) with 239 yards passing, two touchdown passes and an interception against the Browns.

He has thrived in porous pass protection, ranking first in completion percentage (60%) and yards per pass (8.1) under pressure since Week 5, throwing 17 touchdown passes to just four interceptions. The Bengals are riding a five-game winning streak with a division title. With a handful of opportunities to cement himself among the front runners, such as a head-to-head matchup against Allen in Week 17 and then potentially putting the AFC North on the line in Week 18, Burrow has a real shot at the top two.


2022 statistics: 3,553 passing yards, 628 rushing yards, 32 total TDs, 11 INTs, 73.2 QBR
Current Odds: +2000

Allen and the Bills won in Week 14 against the Jets in bad weather. Buffalo punted on five straight drives to open the game, the first time that had happened with Allen at quarterback, and Allen threw for a season-low 147 yards. But Buffalo is still the current No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Allen also contributed significantly to the numbers Stefon Diggs Placing — Diggs is tied for third in touchdowns, third in receptions and fourth in receiving yards. The Bills will have a chance to get back on track at home against a Dolphins team riding a two-game losing streak.


2022 statistics: 3,004 passing yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs, 73.5 QBR
Current Odds: +5000

Back-to-back losses to the 49ers and Chargers derailed Tagovailoa’s MVP chances. Tagovailoa had an 83 total QBR and 70% completion percentage in his first nine games and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt. In his past two starts, his total QBR dropped by 22, his completion percentage dropped by 46% (he went 10 of 28. Chargers, the worst mark of his career) and his yards per attempt dropped to 7.2.

Tagovailoa was the third-best prospect for the MVP award entering Week 13. Now he’s on the outside looking in, leading a second-place team in the AFC East with upcoming games against the Bills, Packers, Patriots and Jets to close out the regular season. .


Missed it for a bit

Justin JeffersonWR, Minnesota Vikings (+15000)

Hill will be tied for the NFL’s receiving yards leader to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. Jefferson topped 1,500 receiving yards in 13 games (a league-best 115.4 yards per game) and set the Vikings’ single-game record for receiving yards when he caught 11 passes for 223 yards in a loss to Detroit. A non-quarterback has to prove that his production is the catalyst behind the offense and the success of his quarterback, not the other way around, to win the MVP. The case can certainly be made for Jefferson because of his impact in helping the Vikings to a 10-3 victory, but his touchdown production (6) pales in comparison to other MVP candidates.

Micah Parsonspounds, Dallas Cowboys (+25000)

The Cowboys edge rusher ranks third in pressures (59) and sacks (12) through 13 games and anchors the NFL’s No. 3 scoring defense. He has more two-sack games (6) than any other defender but has yet to generate a single hit against Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers or the Philadelphia Hearts, both games resulted in losses for the Cowboys. Competition is also lurking for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award. Parsons needs a signature moment down the stretch to separate himself from the likes Nick Bosa, Matthew Juden And Max Crosby.

Tyreek HillWR, Miami Dolphins (+8000)

Along with Jefferson, Hill is on his way to making history. In his 13th game as a Dolphin, Hill reset Miami’s single-season franchise receiving record previously held by Mark Clayton (1,389 yards in 1984), needing just 11 yards entering Week 14. Hill and Jefferson both lead the league with 125 in six games. plus receiving yards, and the Dolphins receiver added another feat to his list of accomplishments against Los Angeles by returning a fumble 57 yards for a touchdown — the first fumble-recovery TD of his NFL career.

Geno SmithQB, Seattle Seahawks (+20000)

Smith’s signature MVP moment came against the Rams in Week 13 where he orchestrated a game-winning drive on the road with two minutes left to lead the Seahawks to victory. It was Smith’s first game-winning drive since his second season with the Jets in 2014, and while he’s currently the betting favorite for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award, Smith is firmly in the conversation for MVP. The 32-year-old quarterback is third in the league in completion percentage (71.5%), third in passer rating (106.8), has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 11 of 13 games and is sixth in passing (3,433 yards) and fourth in touchdown throws (25).

Also receiving top-10 votes: Chargers QB Justin HerbertVikings QB Kirk CousinsRavens QB Lamar Jackson49ers DE Nick BosaChiefs T.E Travis KelceRaiders WR Davante AdamsEagles WR AJ BrownTitans Arabic Derrick HenryBill WR Stefon DiggsCowboys QB Dak PrescottLions QB Jared Goff49ers RB Christian McCaffreyRaider Arabic Josh JacobsCowboy Arabic Tony Pollard and Giant Arab Saquon Barkley


to hoard, to accumulate

Justin HerbertQB, Los Angeles Chargers (+25000)

Playing without his two starting offensive tackles, Herbert turned in the strongest performance of his career in a 23–17 win over the Dolphins in Week 14. 2020 draft, and threw for a season-high 367 yards and a touchdown on 39-of-51 passing. The Chargers are in the hunt for an AFC wild-card spot with winnable games against Tennessee (which has an identical 7-6 record), Indianapolis, Las Vegas and Denver remaining.

Nick Bosaoff, San Francisco 49ers

Bosa is Parsons’ strongest competition for Defensive Player of the Year. His signature moment came when he destroyed Miami’s offensive line en route to three sacks and a forced fumble in Week 13. The 49ers edge rusher leads the league with 14.5 sacks (no other San Francisco defender has more than 4.0), has 35 QB hits and has recorded 64 total pressures and won 23.3% of his pass-rush snaps, second-best among qualified defenders.


Stock down

Lamar JacksonQB, Baltimore Ravens (+15000)

Jackson missed most of the Ravens’ Week 13 win and all of Week 14 with a knee injury, so his odds are slim. He’s no longer a lock as the league’s most dynamic rushing quarterback, a nod to the Bears going QB this season. Justin Fields. The Ravens and Bengals are tied for first in the AFC North with a meeting on Jan. 8 that will likely decide the division winner. Jackson’s injury could keep him out for up to 16 weeks, further removing him from the MVP conversation.

Saquon BarkleyArabic, New York Giants

The Giants’ postseason chances look like they’re slipping away during a brutal stretch of NFC East games. Barkley surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing threshold in a tie against Washington but has been quiet of late, rushing for just 67 yards in losses to rivals Dallas and Philadelphia.

Dak PrescottQB, Dallas Cowboys (+15000)

The Cowboys avoided an upset against the one-win Texans in Week 14 when Prescott completed six of seven passes for 79 yards in the game’s final minute to set up Dallas’ go-ahead touchdown. The Cowboys are averaging 35.7 points with a 6-1 record since Prescott’s return to the lineup, but the quarterback will need to play better to finish the year if the Cowboys plan on making a deep playoff run.

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